The Lindy Effect: Time as the Strictest Judge

We live surrounded by a constant outpouring of new information, bestsellers, and latest trends. But will we be reading that book a year from now? Will that technology still be in use 100 years from now?

The ‘Lindy Effect,’ popularized by Nassim Taleb, explains the probability of non-perishable things (ideas, knowledge, customs, books, etc.) surviving. Its core is very simple and clear: “The longer a specific idea has survived, the higher the probability that it will survive longer in the future.”

I. The Paradox of Time and Survival

Biological beings (humans, animals) have a higher probability of dying as they age. However, ideas and knowledge are the opposite.

• Bestsellers vs. Classics: A bestseller published today might be forgotten by next month. But the Bible, Buddhist scriptures, or works of Plato that have endured 2,000 years are very likely to survive another 2,000 years.
• Latest Apps vs. Spoons: Some app trending today might disappear in 5 years. But the technology of spoons and chopsticks used since thousands of years ago will continue as long as humanity exists.

II. Why Should We Know the Lindy Effect?

The Lindy Effect provides a powerful standard for what we should spend our time and energy on.

1. Selection of Knowledge: ‘New’ is not necessarily ‘Better.’ In fact, new information that has not undergone the test of time is highly likely to be junk. If you want to obtain true wisdom, read classics hundreds of years old instead of this week’s news.
2. Risk Management: Rather than obsessing over unproven new technology or flashy theories, it is much safer and more efficient to stick to traditional methods (health, relationships, investment, etc.) whose effectiveness has been proven for a long time.
3. Sustainability: If you want a project or idea you create to last long, you must focus on the universal and fundamental values of human nature rather than sparkling trends.

III. Application of the Lindy Effect: How to Filter Out Fakes

Originating from comedians at ‘Lindy’s’ deli in New York predicting the performance lifespans of their peers, this effect is like a sieve that filters out the ‘fake wisdom’ of our time.

• Don’t be dazzled by the words: “This is a revolutionary new technology!” Ask yourself if that technology will exist 10 years from now.
• Trust the ‘reputation’ and ‘essence’ passed down by word of mouth for a long time rather than complex and flashy marketing. Time is a competent editor that filters out falsehoods and leaves only the truth.

Conclusion: Invest in the Eternal

Our lives are short and time is limited. Life is too precious to waste that valuable time on unproven noises.

Remember the Lindy Effect. What survives is strong, and what is strong is beautiful. Listen to the wisdom of ancient sages that reached you through thousands of years. They are already the most reliable helpers who have passed the grand judgment called time.