Mind & Psychology•May 20, 2025•1 min read

Hindsight Bias: I Knew It All Along

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Baruch FischhoffContributor

The Historian’s Fallacy

Before the 2008 financial crash, almost no one predicted it. After it happened, everyone said, “It was obvious! Look at the housing bubble!” This is Hindsight Bias. Once we know the outcome, we rewrite our memory to believe we saw it coming. We connect the dots backwards and assume the line was straight.

The Danger

“I knew it” is a dangerous phrase. It stops you from asking, “Why didn’t I actually predict it?” It makes you think the world is predictable, when it is actually chaotic. Keep a journal of your predictions. You will be shocked at how wrong you usually are.

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Baruch Fischhoff

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