Survivorship Bias: The Missing Bullet Holes

The Returning Planes

In WWII, the military analyzed bombers that returned from battle. They saw bullet holes in the wings and tail, so they decided to reinforce those areas. Statistician Abraham Wald stopped them. He said, “You are looking at the planes that survived. The planes that got hit in the engines and cockpit didn’t come back. You need to put armor where the bullet holes aren’t.”

Success Stories Are Misleading

We study successful people (Gates, Zuckerberg) and try to copy their habits (dropping out of college). But we ignore the thousands of dropouts who failed. We only see the survivors. Survivorship Bias makes success look easier than it is because failure is often invisible. When you look at history, remember to count the graves.