Availability Heuristic: The Fear of Sharks

Shark Attacks vs. Coconuts

Are you more afraid of being eaten by a shark or being hit by a falling coconut? Most say shark. Yet statistically, falling coconuts kill more people. Why? Because “Shark Attack” is vivid. It’s in movies (Jaws). It’s on the news. It is available in your memory. “Death by Coconut” is boring and forgettable.

Distorted Reality

The Availability Heuristic tricks us into thinking the world is more dangerous than it is. The news shows us the worst 0.01% of events every day. We recall these disasters easily and assume they are common. Don’t trust your gut on statistics. Your gut relies on headlines. Look at the data.