Gambler's Fallacy: The Dice Have No Memory
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Tversky & KahnemanContributor
Monte Carlo, 1913
At a roulette table, black came up 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost millions betting on red, thinking “Red must come up next!” But the odds were always 50/50. (Or technically 48.6/48.6 due to the green zero).
Independent Events
The dice have no memory. They do not know what happened on the last roll. If you have 5 daughters, you are not “due” for a son. The chance is still ~50%.
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Tversky & Kahneman
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