Prologue: Which Path Do We Choose at the Crossroads?

Four Crossroads, Arriving at Once

The history of economics and investing is a history of crossroads. What makes this moment different is that four major crossroads are appearing at the same time.

The first crossroad: geopolitical conflict The war in Ukraine, the crisis in the Middle East, the U.S.-China rivalry for supremacy. How these conflicts resolve will determine energy prices, supply chains, and the shape of global trade.

The second crossroad: the K-shaped economy Since the pandemic, the economy has split in two directions — asset prices surging while the real economy stagnates. Will this K-shaped recovery persist, or converge?

The third crossroad: a new Fed chair Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve, and the choice of a new chair. The direction of monetary policy will shape inflation, interest rates, and asset prices alike.

The fourth crossroad: AI and productivity Will AI genuinely drive economic growth — or is it a technology bubble rather than a new engine of growth?

What These Crossroads Have in Common

These four crossroads share one thing: no one can say today which direction any of them will take. And choosing the wrong direction carries a real cost.

What This Series Sets Out to Do

This series analyzes the scenarios possible at each crossroad. It does not claim that one direction is certainly correct. Instead, it explores what happens if events unfold each way, and how to prepare.

Do you chase the fish with a net, or set a trap by the water and wait? That choice, in the end, belongs to the reader.

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The Crossroads Economy series explores where macroeconomics, monetary policy, AI, and dollar investing intersect.